Marathon Result Patterns or Pointlessness?
2.12.08In the too much time on your hands department ….
I heard there was a marathon this weekend and was talking with some runners about their race pace strategy. Everyone’s got a different strategy but it usually boils down to one of two things: either go out easy and “pick it up” on the last half/10K, or “bank time” and try to “hold on”. You rarely hear someone say they plan on running even splits.
I remember looking at the results of my marathon, and on cursory glance it looked like nearly everyone faded to some degree over the last half/10k/5k/whatever (FWIW, toot toot, my second half split was within 90 seconds of my first half split). So anyway I was curious if there was some sort of pattern I could discern from last year’s Austin Marathon results. Would it be obvious that most everyone “dies” over the last 10k? Is it better to bank time?
Looking for answers (or something to do) I wrote a little script to parse the 2007 Austin Marathon results page and calculate the average splits at the various checkpoints per range of finishers. Huh? Basically, I took the finisher results in five minute increments, and averaged the splits of those finishers within each increment.
I’m not really sure I see any sort of pattern. I was actually pretty surprised at how even the splits appear. Maybe that’s because they’re, uh, “averages”. Maybe I should have calculated a mean or some other statistical calculation I’m too uneducated to use. I do notice that in almost all cases, the 10 mile split is quite a bit faster than the 2 mile split and faster than the overall pace. For instance, of the people who finished between 3:19 and 3:24, here are their split averages:
2m split avg: 7:47 10m split avg: 7:30 17m split avg: 7:32 21m split avg: 7:34 Overall pace: 7:41
One explanation of this could be that the first 2 miles were so log jammed and crowded with runners last year that no one was running their true pace. But even the elites picked it up significantly after mile 2, though they were better able to keep up the faster pace the whole race better than most other groups (which is probably to be expected since they are, you know, “elite”)..
One thing that is noticable is that every single group was slower at the finish than at 21 miles. So if you’re planning on “picking it up” the last 10K, you won’t. The group closest at the finish to their 21 mile pace was the 2:49:00 to 2:53:59 group:
Hmmm… after actually looking at the graphs, many of them appear to be gibberish. This is because one, I’m a moron, and two, the graphing library I used doesn’t handle min:sec time increments so I had to hack it … which leads back to point number one: I’m a moron. Oh well, they look kinda cool.
2007 Austin Marathon Averages per 5 Minute Finishing Time ------------------ 2:14:00 to 2:18:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 5:28 10m split avg: 5:14 17m split avg: 5:10 21m split avg: 5:09 Overall pace: 5:11
------------------ 2:19:00 to 2:23:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 5:30 10m split avg: 5:23 17m split avg: 5:21 21m split avg: 5:20 Overall pace: 5:25
------------------ 2:24:00 to 2:28:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 5:32 10m split avg: 5:27 17m split avg: 5:28 21m split avg: 5:29 Overall pace: 5:35
------------------ 2:29:00 to 2:33:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 5:47 10m split avg: 5:45 17m split avg: 5:45 21m split avg: 5:45 Overall pace: 5:48
------------------ 2:34:00 to 2:38:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 5:54 10m split avg: 5:49 17m split avg: 5:52 21m split avg: 5:53 Overall pace: 6:00
------------------ 2:39:00 to 2:43:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 6:07 10m split avg: 6:03 17m split avg: 6:05 21m split avg: 6:05 Overall pace: 6:09
------------------ 2:44:00 to 2:48:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 6:19 10m split avg: 6:15 17m split avg: 6:16 21m split avg: 6:16 Overall pace: 6:20
------------------ 2:49:00 to 2:53:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 6:39 10m split avg: 6:34 17m split avg: 6:33 21m split avg: 6:32 Overall pace: 6:34
------------------ 2:54:00 to 2:58:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 6:43 10m split avg: 6:38 17m split avg: 6:40 21m split avg: 6:41 Overall pace: 6:45
------------------ 2:59:00 to 3:03:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 6:54 10m split avg: 6:48 17m split avg: 6:49 21m split avg: 6:50 Overall pace: 6:54
------------------ 3:04:00 to 3:08:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 7:11 10m split avg: 7:00 17m split avg: 7:00 21m split avg: 7:00 Overall pace: 7:08
------------------ 3:09:00 to 3:13:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 7:22 10m split avg: 7:10 17m split avg: 7:11 21m split avg: 7:12 Overall pace: 7:18
------------------ 3:14:00 to 3:18:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 7:33 10m split avg: 7:20 17m split avg: 7:21 21m split avg: 7:23 Overall pace: 7:30
------------------ 3:19:00 to 3:23:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 7:47 10m split avg: 7:30 17m split avg: 7:32 21m split avg: 7:34 Overall pace: 7:41
------------------ 3:24:00 to 3:28:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 7:58 10m split avg: 7:40 17m split avg: 7:43 21m split avg: 7:46 Overall pace: 7:54
------------------ 3:29:00 to 3:33:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 8:10 10m split avg: 7:53 17m split avg: 7:55 21m split avg: 7:57 Overall pace: 8:04
------------------ 3:34:00 to 3:38:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 8:21 10m split avg: 8:04 17m split avg: 8:06 21m split avg: 8:08 Overall pace: 8:16
------------------ 3:39:00 to 3:43:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 8:29 10m split avg: 8:11 17m split avg: 8:13 21m split avg: 8:17 Overall pace: 8:27
------------------ 3:44:00 to 3:48:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 8:41 10m split avg: 8:23 17m split avg: 8:26 21m split avg: 8:30 Overall pace: 8:39
------------------ 3:49:00 to 3:53:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 8:47 10m split avg: 8:28 17m split avg: 8:33 21m split avg: 8:38 Overall pace: 8:50
------------------ 3:54:00 to 3:58:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 9:03 10m split avg: 8:44 17m split avg: 8:48 21m split avg: 8:52 Overall pace: 9:02
------------------ 3:59:00 to 4:03:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 9:02 10m split avg: 8:49 17m split avg: 8:55 21m split avg: 9:02 Overall pace: 9:13
------------------ 4:04:00 to 4:08:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 9:17 10m split avg: 8:59 17m split avg: 9:05 21m split avg: 9:11 Overall pace: 9:25
------------------ 4:09:00 to 4:13:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 9:26 10m split avg: 9:10 17m split avg: 9:16 21m split avg: 9:23 Overall pace: 9:36
------------------ 4:14:00 to 4:18:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 9:33 10m split avg: 9:18 17m split avg: 9:24 21m split avg: 9:32 Overall pace: 9:47
------------------ 4:19:00 to 4:23:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 9:40 10m split avg: 9:26 17m split avg: 9:35 21m split avg: 9:44 Overall pace: 9:59
------------------ 4:24:00 to 4:28:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 9:51 10m split avg: 9:39 17m split avg: 9:48 21m split avg: 9:58 Overall pace: 10:11
------------------ 4:29:00 to 4:33:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 9:59 10m split avg: 9:48 17m split avg: 9:57 21m split avg: 10:07 Overall pace: 10:21
------------------ 4:34:00 to 4:38:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 10:06 10m split avg: 9:58 17m split avg: 10:07 21m split avg: 10:18 Overall pace: 10:33
------------------ 4:39:00 to 4:43:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 10:09 10m split avg: 10:05 17m split avg: 10:18 21m split avg: 10:30 Overall pace: 10:45
------------------ 4:44:00 to 4:48:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 10:15 10m split avg: 10:09 17m split avg: 10:23 21m split avg: 10:38 Overall pace: 10:56
------------------ 4:49:00 to 4:53:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 10:28 10m split avg: 10:24 17m split avg: 10:36 21m split avg: 10:50 Overall pace: 11:08
------------------ 4:54:00 to 4:58:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 10:39 10m split avg: 10:33 17m split avg: 10:49 21m split avg: 11:03 Overall pace: 11:19
------------------ 4:59:00 to 5:03:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 10:45 10m split avg: 10:46 17m split avg: 11:02 21m split avg: 11:16 Overall pace: 11:30
------------------ 5:04:00 to 5:08:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 10:53 10m split avg: 11:01 17m split avg: 11:15 21m split avg: 11:29 Overall pace: 11:42
------------------ 5:09:00 to 5:13:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 10:46 10m split avg: 10:53 17m split avg: 11:16 21m split avg: 11:35 Overall pace: 11:53
------------------ 5:14:00 to 5:18:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 11:02 10m split avg: 11:09 17m split avg: 11:30 21m split avg: 11:48 Overall pace: 12:05
------------------ 5:19:00 to 5:23:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 11:15 10m split avg: 11:28 17m split avg: 11:47 21m split avg: 12:02 Overall pace: 12:17
------------------ 5:24:00 to 5:28:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 11:05 10m split avg: 11:15 17m split avg: 11:46 21m split avg: 12:06 Overall pace: 12:28
------------------ 5:29:00 to 5:33:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 11:26 10m split avg: 11:42 17m split avg: 12:05 21m split avg: 12:23 Overall pace: 12:39
------------------ 5:34:00 to 5:38:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 11:45 10m split avg: 11:53 17m split avg: 12:19 21m split avg: 12:36 Overall pace: 12:51
------------------ 5:39:00 to 5:43:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 11:38 10m split avg: 11:57 17m split avg: 12:24 21m split avg: 12:44 Overall pace: 13:01
------------------ 5:44:00 to 5:48:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 11:29 10m split avg: 11:56 17m split avg: 12:29 21m split avg: 12:53 Overall pace: 13:13
------------------ 5:49:00 to 5:53:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 11:43 10m split avg: 12:09 17m split avg: 12:43 21m split avg: 13:06 Overall pace: 13:25
------------------ 5:54:00 to 5:58:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 12:07 10m split avg: 12:21 17m split avg: 12:57 21m split avg: 13:18 Overall pace: 13:37
------------------ 5:59:00 to 6:03:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 12:10 10m split avg: 12:31 17m split avg: 13:06 21m split avg: 13:30 Overall pace: 13:48
------------------ 6:04:00 to 6:08:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 12:00 10m split avg: 12:34 17m split avg: 13:16 21m split avg: 13:40 Overall pace: 14:00
------------------ 6:09:00 to 6:13:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 12:07 10m split avg: 12:41 17m split avg: 13:27 21m split avg: 13:51 Overall pace: 14:12
------------------ 6:14:00 to 6:18:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 12:27 10m split avg: 13:05 17m split avg: 13:41 21m split avg: 14:04 Overall pace: 14:21
------------------ 6:19:00 to 6:23:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 12:32 10m split avg: 13:03 17m split avg: 13:48 21m split avg: 14:10 Overall pace: 14:33
------------------ 6:24:00 to 6:28:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 12:56 10m split avg: 13:31 17m split avg: 14:05 21m split avg: 14:25 Overall pace: 14:46
------------------ 6:29:00 to 6:33:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 12:40 10m split avg: 13:18 17m split avg: 14:06 21m split avg: 14:31 Overall pace: 14:57
------------------ 6:34:00 to 6:38:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 12:46 10m split avg: 13:44 17m split avg: 14:28 21m split avg: 14:46 Overall pace: 15:08
------------------ 6:39:00 to 6:43:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 13:12 10m split avg: 13:43 17m split avg: 14:26 21m split avg: 14:52 Overall pace: 15:18
------------------ 6:44:00 to 6:48:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 14:15 10m split avg: 14:22 17m split avg: 14:52 21m split avg: 15:10 Overall pace: 15:30
------------------ 6:49:00 to 6:53:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 13:18 10m split avg: 14:02 17m split avg: 15:00 21m split avg: 15:23 Overall pace: 15:43
------------------ 6:54:00 to 6:58:59 ------------------ 2m split avg: 13:01 10m split avg: 13:41 17m split avg: 14:47 21m split avg: 15:27 Overall pace: 15:52
2 Responses to “Marathon Result Patterns or Pointlessness?”
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rationalize it however you want, it’s completely geeky.
so are the averages cumulative for specific to that interval? in other words, when i see “21m split avg”, does that mean the pace from mile 0 to mile 21? or the pace from mile 17 to mile 21? if it’s the former, that slow down in the last 5 miles is pretty extreme.
February 12th, 2008 at 7:33 pm[...] Today I showed up for my third Gazelles workout in a row, which goes against all wisdom and experience. Have I learned nothing from the mystic runners? Anyway, it was 7 mile fartlek, which is my longest run in weeks, and which gave me a stitch for the last 3 miles. None of this is all that interesting or well-written so here’s a bit more on the completely useless 2007 Austin Marathon average pace data from the other day. Andre asked, so are the averages cumulative or specific to that interval? in other words, when i see “21m split avgâ€, does that mean the pace from mile 0 to mile 21? or the pace from mile 17 to mile 21? if it’s the former, that slow down in the last 5 miles is pretty extreme. [...]
February 15th, 2008 at 12:16 am